Policy Incoherence: EU Fisheries Policy in Senegal

human development, aid, trade, security

Climate change and forced migration: Observations, projections and implications

human development, climate change

Supermarket Buying Power, Global Commodity Chains and Smallholder Farmers in the Developing World

human development, aid, trade, security

Wealth for the Few, Poverty for the Many: The Resource Curse – Examples of Poor Governance/Corporate Mismanagement Wasting Natural Resource Wealth

human development, aid, trade, security

Migration and climate change

The problem is one of time (the speed of change) and scale (the number of people it will affect). But the simplistic image of a coastal farmer being forced to pack up and move to a rich country is not typical. Temporary migration as an adaptive response to climate stress is already apparent in many areas. But the picture is nuanced; the ability to migrate is a function of mobility and resources (both financial and social). In other words, the people most vulnerable to climate change are not necessarily the ones most likely to migrate

Strength of density feedback in census data increases from slow to fast life histories

Life-history theory predicts an increasing rate of population growth among species arranged along a continuum from slow to fast life histories. We examine the effects of this continuum on density-feedback strength estimated using long-term census data from >700 vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants. Four life-history traits (Age at first reproduction, Body size, Fertility, Longevity) were related statistically to Gompertz strength of density feedback using generalized linear mixed-effects models and multi-model inference. Life-history traits alone explained 10 to 30% of the variation in strength across species (after controlling for time-series length and phylogenetic nonindependence). Effect sizes were largest for body size in mammals and longevity in birds, and density feedback was consistently stronger for smaller-bodied and shorter-lived species. Overcompensatory density feedback (strength <−1) occurred in 20% of species, predominantly at the fast end of the life-history continuum, implying relatively high population variability. These results support the idea that life history leaves an evolutionary signal in long-term population trends as inferred from census data. Where there is a lack of detailed demographic data, broad life-history information can inform management and conservation decisions about rebound capacity from low numbers, and propensity to fluctuate, of arrays of species in areas planned for development, harvesting, protection, and population recovery.Salvador Herrando-Pérez, Steven Delean, Barry W. Brook & Corey J. A. Bradsha

El baile de cifras

Las estimaciones sobre el posible número de ‘migrantes debido al cambio climático’ varían en gran medida. Para convencer a los responsables políticos de la necesidad de actuar y de proporcionar una base sólida para fomentar la respuesta adecuada, resulta urgente disponer de mejores análisis, mejores datos y mejores predicciones

The numbers game

Estimates of the potential number of ‘climate changemigrants’ vary hugely. In order to persuade policymakers ofthe need to act and to provide a sound basis for appropriateresponses, there is an urgent need for better analysis, betterdata and better predictions